What I'm Watching for at UNGA and Climate Week

Here in NYC, this week is set to be very busy. It brings climate week and UNGA, the high level meetings of the UN General Assembly which feature many global leaders - and tons of sideline events and usually a lot of traffic on the East side of midtown - use transit! After all that also saves you the congestion charge (tho as a New Yorker wanting more transit revenue for service improvements, maybe I should have a different view, but that’s a different post). This post lists a few of the things I’ve noticed when scanning the upcoming event invites, and what I’m watching for for especially on the investment side. If you’re around I’d be delighted to compare notes - or do so after.

This year feels a bit jarring given the Trump administration’s pullback on multilateral organizations, development aid and climate change concerns. In fact, I’ve had a few debates from those outside the city about whether or not much was happening this year - many see events this year as less market and investor relevant than in the past. Perhaps, especially with climate and sustainability focused actors still regrouping from an incentive shifts. Nonetheless, global investors, leaders and others are gathering to think about opportunities.

While high level US officials and business may be less evident than in the past, the week will still present a lot of key discussions both on the development and sustainability issues, as well as trade and investment shifts, especially. It will also be a key test of whether corporate and development investment interest is actually ready to engage with developing countries on more commercial terms and how countries maneuver the new investment, trade and cronyism dynamics.

Choose your own adventure. Like any big global event there are a lot of side events. It’s really only been in the last 15 or so years that UNGA week(s) became such a key opportunity for foreign governments to reach out to the capital in NYC. Many entities also do side line events. As with the IMF annual meetings, the presence of key officials for policy discussions presents the chance to have a wider range of conversations including on business deals. We’ll see how the mood evolves this year, but it definitely seems to still be a driver of NYC’s event spaces.

Such questions are even more relevant in the wake of US and other officials seeking to emphasize commercial not development and humanitarian ties. The UN itself needs to approve major budget cuts which likely will make multilateral efforts more difficult. Key priorities like peacekeeping seem to have experienced extensive cuts, and the proposed budget cuts may leave a more top-heavy organization. I’ll be watching for what’s new including new public private partnerships.

Africa and critical minerals in focus: As in recent years, the meetings provide a particularly important time for African leaders and investors to reach out to capital providers especially given that development funding is less in evidence and commercial ties more in focus - something some African leaders have asked for for some time. In particular, I’ve seem a number of discussions slated on critical minerals development as well as discussions on African infrastructure, health and other investments. Tho given my own interest in critical minerals, perhaps I’m just poised to see that. Friend/ally-shoring is no longer in as much evidence. There definitely is a competition to develop these key resources and reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, but I’m more skeptical whether efforts to reduce the real chokepoints (Chinese refining dominance) can be addressed.

MENA local and geopolitics: As for UNGA itself, there are many MENA related trends to follow, especially regional geopolitics, and efforts to reshape trade. Today marked recognition of a Palestinian state by Canada, UK and France and many tough conversations about Gaza are ahead. regional powers will be focused on reconstuction elsewhere also.

Syria: This year marks the new Syrian government’s return in a moment of sanctions relief and extensive rebuilding needs. Still, not all the sanctions have been lifted, and some banks remain wary - to some extent with good cause given continued money-laundering and security concerns. US Congressional sanctions are only suspended, though they could be lifted in this year’s defense policy bill, although some US officials want more conditionality.

Iran - last minute negotiations to avoid snapback are possible, though difficult. Recent Chinese and Russian attempts to block snapback of UN SC sanctions failed sanctions seem set to go back into effect at the end of the week. There may not be much economic effect, partly because US sanctions already extensive sharply limiting legal trade and the additional UNSC sanctions mostly cover military trade. Meanwhile, it’s hard to see China, the largest energy buyer, or its intermediaries doing more than necessary on its trade. China is in a position trying to weaken UN and parallel coordinated unilateral sanctions against a variety of jurisdictions including itself. These trends point to real divides in the UNSC. And as for the US, its new ambassador was only approved this week.

At climate week, Northern European leaders active a. Northern European countries such as Denmark and Finland have or planned significant events, showcasing both their own transition achievements and the technology and innovation they are creating. I wrote elsewhere about attendance at the Consulate General of Finland, where the focus on net zero energy and charging stations seemed jarring, but research and corporate developments inspiring. I’ll be watching how they adjust their pitch at a time when US government incentives are no longer focused on lower carbon solutions. Still, reliable power is even more important at a time when data centers are guzzling more and more, which brings me to…

AI energy themes: These days many events need to discuss AI - either the efficiencies potentially gained or the increasing power demands. I participated in a podcast simulation on such themes a few weeks back. The increasing demand for power from data centers seems the focus of many events, including those sponsored by tech companies. Some of these companies still have to meet energy efficiency and lower-carbon goals in Europe and other countries even if the US is no longer supportive of wind and solar power, others are just looking for the cheapest sources.

Methane capture and other cost savings: USG may be making it easier for business to avoid flaring and pull back on methane leakage, but that’s far from the rules internationally (some reports suggest methane leaks were a reason the XRG-Santos acquisition fell off the rails). Plus it’s a waste of resources. We’ll see how the industry continues to evolve.

New Data sources: In energy and around other sectors, new higher-quality data is becoming more important - for spotting leaks and other trends or to monitor complex value chains and shipping trends. Paradoxically we have more inventories (China) and shipping (dark fleet) in less than transparent supply chains but also more satellite data to track them. This means of course that less data is available as a public service and asymmetries of investment develop. Something to watch not just for energy but also more broadly in the economy.

What are you watching for? Reach out, I’d be happy to compare notes and consider collaborations.